Hydrological projections for floods in Norway under a future climate

Abstract

An ensemble of regional climate scenarios, calibrated hydrological models and flood frequency analyses are used to assess likely changes in hydrological floods under a future climate in Norway for two periods, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Analyses are based on detailed modelling for 115 catchments, and changes in the mean annual flood, the 200-year and the 1000-year floods are estimated. Regional guidance for using the projections in climate change adaptation planning is also presented.